The management of the issue could either lead to the consolidation of democracy in the country, or further damage it, Düzgit believes, saying that the elections on 22 July – and subsequent presidential election – are crucial. They must be held on the specified date if there is to be any hope of political stability and normalisation in Turkey, he declares. (Source: Euractiv.com)

Read the commentary What exactly is happening in Turkey? On the way to normalisation or breakdown? (6 July 2007)

Turkey began EU membership talks in 2005 but the bloc has frozen talks in eight policy areas over Ankara's Cyprus policy. Nicolas Sarkozy's election as French president has also strained ties because he is opposed to Turkey ever joining the EU.

"The EU has now become a group playing petty games. ... The EU can keep its door shut to Turkey if it wishes," Gul said in televised comments during campaigning for this month's parliamentary elections.

Gul said the EU needed to show more vision and recognise the strategic benefits of taking in Turkey, a large, mainly Muslim country with a fast-growing economy and a youthful population.

"A developed Turkey will become very attractive. Then the EU will give up its petty games," he said.

Turkey has resisted EU pressure to open its ports and airports to traffic from EU member Cyprus, saying the 27-nation bloc must first lift a trade embargo against breakaway Turkish Cypriots in the north of the ethnically partitioned island.

Turkey has no relations with the internationally recognised Greek Cypriot government in Nicosia.

Turkish public support for joining the EU has fallen amid rising nationalism and a perception that the EU does not really want to admit Turkey.

But a poll published in Sabah newspaper on Sunday showed 51 percent of young people aged 18 to 22 supported Turkey's accession, against 39 percent who were opposed. Only a third of those surveyed said Turkey would never join the EU.

EU membership has barely featured in the election campaign.

Gul's ruling centre-right AK Party is expected to win the July 22 polls, though nationalist parties are also expected to perform well, according to opinion polls. The AK Party has vowed to step up EU-linked reforms if it forms the next government.

"Two other interpretations have been offered in the press. One is that Sarkhozy’s proposal is just a Turkey gambit. “Dear Turkey, I do not want you in the European Union, but why not instead join us as a major player in the Mediterranean Union?” Another is that the proposal was just an intuitive remark about wanting to do something ‘better than Barcelona’ in the Mediterranean. While the second motive could lead to the prospect of a constructive development of the idea, the first would most likely lead to a vanishing of the grand idea of the Union of the Mediterranean as quickly as it was born, given Turkey’s resounding ‘no’ to the new role it would be offered."

• On 8th November 2006 the Commission adopted an overall enlargement strategy document and a Progress Report on Turkey.

• 2005 Progress Report
  See also 2005 Enlargement Strategy Paper
• 2004 Regular Report
• 2003 Regular Report
• 2002 Regular Report
• 2001 Regular Report
• 2000 Regular Report
• 1999 Progress Report
• 1998 Progress Report

"The current crisis has added an extra degree of realism and caution to the often overly emotional debate about Turkey's accession. This is good. Now Turkey needs to concentrate on resolving disagreements about the presidency while respecting democratic rules. The early parliamentary election could be a plus, if the new government got on with reforms soon afterwards. In this case, the EU should not be shy to praise Turkey in its annual progress report in the autumn. And it should redouble its efforts to resolve the Cyprus issue so that it can lift the part-suspension of the talks."