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Wednesday, 1 August 2007
An Analysis of the Turkish Election: Prime Minister Erdoğan on Top of the World
Labels: domestic politics, elections2007
Turkey's political opening
Tezcur believes that the July 22 election reinforced the AKP's position as the "single most authoritative force in Turkish politics". It increased its share of the vote by 13 percentage points to 47%, giving it control of 340 of parliament's 550 seats.
He claims that if the AKP can translate its popular mandate into major political reform, then Turkey may emerge as the "only Muslim-majority country where secularism and democracy coexist".
Labels: analysis, domestic politics, elections2007
Tuesday, 31 July 2007
AKP’s Victory: Politics of Identity and Economic Effectiveness and Empowerment
Labels: domestic politics, elections2007
Monday, 30 July 2007
Boosted with polls victory AK Party eyes Gul for presidency
Labels: elections2007, presidential election
Turkish election board confirms ruling party's resounding victory
Labels: elections2007
Saturday, 28 July 2007
Turkey After the Elections: Bloggers See a Bright Future
Labels: elections2007
Friday, 27 July 2007
The Armed Forces respect the national will
Labels: domestic politics, elections2007
Is MHP dressed to be hero of democracy in new Parliament?
Labels: domestic politics, elections2007
Democratic Muslim nation in EU? Yes!
The Foreign Secretary's choice of verb is a measure of Europe's estrangement from a country which joined Nato in 1952, became an associate member of the European Community in 1963 and has been negotiating for full EU membership since 2005. Read more...
Labels: elections2007, eu
Kurdish party to prepares for return to Parliament
Labels: elections2007
Gul's presidential bid boosted
One of Turkey's main opposition parties, the MHP, has said it will not boycott next month's presidential election. The move could clear the way for the Foreign Minister, Abdullah Gul to become president. Read more...Labels: elections2007, presidential election
The Economist: The burden of victory
Labels: elections2007
Thursday, 26 July 2007
Turkish ruling party may defy army over president
Labels: elections2007
What's next in Turkey: selecting the next president
Turkish Foreign Minister Abdullah Gul says he has not ruled out reviving his presidential bid, days after his AK Party's landslide election win.
Labels: elections2007, presidential election
CHP's stance regardin Abdullah Gul's presidential candidacy stays the same
Labels: CHP, elections2007
Wednesday, 25 July 2007
Turkey's Gul: President Or Polarizer?
Labels: elections2007
Baykal rejects calls to resign amid growing uneasiness
Labels: CHP, domestic politics, elections2007
Investors' joy at Erdogan landslide
Labels: elections2007
Turkey's Erdogan must now heal divisions
Labels: elections2007
Turkey's Gul hints at presidency
Labels: elections2007
Tuesday, 24 July 2007
What is Erdogan's mission now ?
The European press highlights the challenges that lie ahead for Erdogan:+++ Switzerland - Le Temps. Frédéric Koller believes that the risk of crisis in Turkey is far from over. "We would like to believe, with the majority of Turks, that their country is more mature today, more democratic, set on the path to economic progress and ready to pursue an open dialogue with Europe. ... But we can also think that the populist Tayyip Erdogan has yet to prove that he is a democrat with no hidden agenda and that the AKP is the equivalent of a Christian-democrat party in Europe, as some suggest. His first mandate remains associated
with the insidious Islamisation of Turkish society and the AKP, because of its arrogance and mistakes, is responsible for the political crisis of these past few months. The first test will
be whether or not he manages to present a candidate of compromise for the presidency. He promised that he would. He owes it to the Turkish voters, at the risk of another crisis."
(24/07/2007) +++
http://www.letemps.ch/template
+++ Spain - El País. For the daily, "the results of these elections go beyond the hopes of the centre-right party [AKP] which, led by Erdogan, has allowed Turkey the greatest step forward it has taken in decades. The elections have flagrantly delegitimated the powerful generals, who established themselves as guardians of the secular model. ... Despite its shady side, the Ankara government has straightened out the economy, modernised the Constitution and the laws, limited the military domination of politics and opened up negotiations for EU accession in October 2005. The fact that this last point has become seriously complicated and not just because of Nicolas Sarkozy's rise to presidency, should only incite Erdogan to pursue, with even more verve, the reforms necessary to fit into the club that Turkey has been wanting to join for 40 years." (24/07/2007) +++
http://www.elpais.com/articulo
+++ France - Les Echos. Jean-Marc Vittori stresses how precarious the balance of power remains for the Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan, despite Sunday's victory. "For
one thing, the AKP hasn't secured the qualified majority of two thirds that would have allowed it to impose its candidate for the presidency of the Republic. ... Also, the National Action Party , which is very opposed to the European Union, has doubled it's number of votes and is entering Parliament. ... What is the Prime Minister going to do with his victory now ? It won't open a boulevard up for him, just the right to continue along a difficult pathway. ... The Prime Minister will have to continue imposing reforms that will consolidate the country's democracy and economy. For this, he of course intends to lean on Europe and its demands." (24/07/2007) +++
http://www.lesechos.fr/info
+++ Austria - Der Standard. Following the landslide victory of Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan's party, Michael Moravec calls for an end to "the dithering about Turkey's EU
membership". "The election victory should give Erdogan the necessary leeway to overcome the hurdles in the accession talks with the EU. Erdogan's conduct in the still unresolved Cyprus
issue will show how serious he is about EU membership. ... And this Turkish showdown must be followed up by an EU showdown. Behind all the alleged and genuine obstacles to Turkey's
membership lies the question: does the EU want to expand by around 80 million people, most of whom are Muslim? After this election Turkey has at least earned a clear answer to this
question." (24/07/2007) +++
http://derstandard.at/?url=/
+++ Finland - Hufvudstadsbladet. According to Björn Sundell, despite the AKP's clear majority, Mr. Erdogan must reach out to other parties in the future. He adds that this won't be easy.
"The AKP has Islamic roots and is pro-European. The National Movement Party (MHP), on the other hand, shuns the EU while the nationalist Republican People's Party (CHP) wants to keep
religion out of politics at any cost. And the Kurds are tough partners for anyone. Once the euphoria of the election victory has died down, Erdogan would do well to be a little less self-assertive, particularly as far as the next presidential candidate is concerned. Last spring his choice of a religious candidate added fuel to the conflict between religious and secularist Turks. If Erdogan doesn't act with a little more diplomacy and tact this time, he risks plunging Turkey from one political crisis into another." (24/07/2007) +++
http://www.hbl.fi/text/ledare
+++ Slovenia - Dnevnik. With its election victory, the AKP under Prime Minister Reçep Tayyip Erdogan will continue in Ataturk's tradition of the secular state, writes Ales Gaube, commenting.
"This is the first time in 50 years that a ruling party has managed to improve on its previous election results. If an Islamic party had achieved such a victory, conservative circles within the European Union would have seen it as proof that Turkey is not yet ready for the old community. However, such an assessment would be mistaken. ... [Erdogan] wants to continue
the country's economic and political reform. By 2012 he plans to implement fundamental European laws, regardless of whether Turkey is given EU membership or not." (24/07/2007) +++ http://www.dnevnik.si/kolumne
(Source: Eurotopics)
Labels: elections2007, Tayyip Erdogan
Turkey's Challenge: Elect a President
Labels: elections2007
Monday, 23 July 2007
Editorial: Turkish politics and the rising big elephant
Elections in Turkey are over and this is a time of transitions in politics and policy in Turkey. The Justice and Development Party (AKP) won a major victory. The reasons for this victory can be analysed in tens of pages. Let us focus on one single question: ‘What is next in Turkish politics?’. Good question. What is the answer?For the most western observers the Turkey’s election was about a clash between secular elites and moderate Islamism in Turkey (see TIME, Turkey's Dilemma, where Turkey is described as an divided country between secularists and moderate islamists). Of course this ideological perspective was the easiest way to understand and to show what is going on in Turkey. However, they missed the point that the key question for the most of the Turkish electorates is the Turkish economy and prosperity in the country. The situation of the Turkish economy has been a powerful driver in election campaigns and AKP’s victory. The opposition parties was not able to deliver substantial issues and proposals, as the AKP successfully dominated debates on economy and social issues. Turkish people wanted to have continuity instead of a new adventure.
The agenda in Turkey is changing, however, in three important ways. There is now growing expectations towards the AKP concerning economic policies. Although Turkey has greatly improved its economical fundamentals, the Turkish economy is vulnerable to domestic and international shocks. Foreign investors hold around 70% of floating shares on the Istanbul Stock Exchange. The current account deficit is partly financed by foreign liquidity. Further economic reforms are needed to improve competitiveness and external balances. Although Turkey is a EU candidate county, the Human Development Index for Turkey is 0.757, which gives Turkey a rank of 92nd out off 177 countries. According to UNDP, 4 % of Turkish population has no access to an improved water resource.
Security issues are rising up the agenda. This problem is disturbing the Turkish public. There are recent terrorist attacks on the Turkish security forces in Southeast Turkey. Public pressure on the government is growing and the opposition is blaming the AKP for ineffective counter terrorism policies. The Nationalist Movement Party (MHP), which wants a stronger counter terrorism policy, could double its votes compared to 2002.
Much else is changing too. Turkey is now more integrated in the global economy. Evidence for this is that in 2006 Turkey attracted USD 17 bn foreign direct investment inflow. Urbanisation is spreading fast and unemployment rate of 11% is too much. Supply chains in Turkey are being reconfigured as Europeanisation and integration in the global economy proceeds. And, interestingly, social policy debates are being re-cast. For example, we can expect that inequality will become a more prominent issue in the future.
We miss all this at our peril. An analogy we can drawn is with a visit to a game park. All eyes and lenses are focused on the lioness and her cubs on the side of the car. Meanwhile, on the other, unnoticed, a large elephant advances…
by Can Akdeniz, Editor of Turkishpolitix.com. Here he is expressing his personal views.
Labels: editorial, elections2007
Debate: What does election result mean for Turkey?
Labels: elections2007
Historical election: Preliminary results and reactions
Support for Erdogan's Justice and Development Party (AKP) rose from 34% in the 2002 election to nearly 47% Sunday, according to preliminary results. It marks the first time in 52 years that Turks have voted an incumbent party back into power with even more support than before.AKP 46, 6 % (341 seats)
CHP 20, 85 % (111 seats)
MHP 14, 29 % (70 seats)
Independent candidates (28 seats)
(According NtvMSNBC)
News & analysis
BBC, Turkish PM vows to pursue reform
FT.com, Landslide victory for Turkey’s Erdogan
Bloomberg, Turkish Markets may rise after AKP elected
Reuters, Turkey's AKP faces challanges after victory
Labels: elections2007
Sunday, 22 July 2007
Turkey's ruling AKP wins vote
Labels: elections2007
Turkey's elections: Watch results online...
Turkey elects new Parliament
Polling booths opened at 7 a.m. (0400 GMT) in east Turkey. In the west, including the capital Ankara and main commercial city Istanbul, they opened an hour later.
Unofficial results are due after 9 p.m. (1800 GMT). Click here to see some pictures.Labels: elections2007
Saturday, 21 July 2007
Erdogan looks set for big election win
An opinion poll published on Thursday showed them winning 42.6 percent and only two other parties entering parliament -- the main opposition centre-left Republican People's Party with 17.3 percent and the far-right Nationalist Movement Party on 12.5 percent. Read more...
Labels: elections2007
Sabanci says Turkish Economy to pick up after elections
Turkish voters head into key elections
Labels: elections2007
Friday, 20 July 2007
Election in Turkey May Be a Watershed
Labels: elections2007
Turkey election campaign nears end
ANKARA (Reuters) - Turkey's political parties entered the final lap of campaigning on Friday for parliamentary elections in which the ruling centre-right, pro-business AK Party is widely tipped to secure another five years in power. Read more...
Labels: elections2007
Post-election Scenarios
1. An AKP single-party government, if it gets more than 38% of the votes
2. A less powerful minority AKP government, if it gets nearly 35% of the votes but it has nearly 260 seats, with the support of independent candidates of the Democratic Turkey Party (DTP)
3. A coalition of the AKP and the Democrat Party (DP), if four parties pass the threshold.
4. A coalition of the AKP and the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) in a three-party Parliament
5. A coalition of the AKP and the main opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP)
6. A coalition of the CHP and MHP.Labels: elections2007
Economist: A battle for the future
Labels: elections2007
Thursday, 19 July 2007
Latest Poll: AKP 48 %, CHP 20 %
Labels: elections2007
EU-Turkey Monitor: EU Negotionations & Elections
Negotiations with Turkey have entered a new stage with the opening of three chapters containing substantial acquis. The ZEI EU-Turkey-Monitor looks into the details of the chapters now open for negotiations. In addition, the upcoming presidential and parliamentary elections in Turkey are analysed and commented on by Turkish as well as European experts: Can Akdeniz (EADI/www.turkishpolitix.com), Nigar Göksel (ESI/editor of Turkish Policy Quarterly), and Dorothée Schmid (Institut francais des relations internationales). Prof. Hüsyein Bagci gives his views on current developments and future perspectives in our interview.
Click here to download the publication (pdf).
Labels: elections2007, eu
Wednesday, 18 July 2007
We Will Not Form A Coalition With Independent Candidates, Erdogan
Labels: elections2007
Young Turks battle on Internet for votes
Labels: elections2007
Tuesday, 17 July 2007
Erdogan to quit on lost election
Labels: elections2007
Turkey's Islamic Business Class Helps Erdogan's Re-Election Bid
Louis Meixler, Bloomberg, points out that islamic business class in Turkey is a pillar of support for Erdogan, 53, who was once a member of a banned Islamist movement and is still viewed with suspicion by Turkey's secularist army and traditional business elite. Read the full article...Labels: elections2007
Economic success backs AKP for final week of campaign
Labels: elections2007
Monday, 16 July 2007
Polls: Large Advantage for AKP in Turkey
Labels: elections2007
Time magazine: Turkey's Dilemma
Elections in Turkey was the cover issue of the recent Time Magazine. Here is a link to the article "Turkey Great Divide".Labels: elections2007
Turkey: Quo Vadis
See also our elections dossier.
Labels: elections2007
Timesonline: Turkish Tremors
Labels: elections2007
Survey: AK Party will remain in power while CHP, MHP and Kurdish independents form opposition
Labels: elections2007
Saturday, 14 July 2007
Background information on upcoming elections in Turkey
Labels: elections2007
Time Magazine: Turkey's Great Divide
"These elections promise to be the most hotly contested in memory, and turnout may reach historic highs. Seaside cottages are renting for half price on the balloting weekend as Turks plan to flock back to the cities to vote. Conspiracy theories are rife as parties accuse each other of undermining Turkish democracy. At stake are policies vitally important in Turkey and beyond, including the question of whether or not to send Turkish forces into Iraq, Turkey's stalled membership talks with the E.U., and economic and democratic policies at home. On most of these issues, Turks are deeply divided.
And nowhere do the fault lines run deeper than among young Turks. A generation not previously known for its activism is rallying around secularist, pro-Islamic or nationalist flags in unprecedented numbers — a political awakening attributed by some to the ideological currents of the present campaign. Their convictions and involvement are key in a nation where nearly 70% of the population is now under 35, the highest proportion among industrialized economies. And political parties are making tremendous efforts to woo the young. An attempt by the AKP to lower the age of eligibility for a seat in parliament from 30 to 25 just narrowly missed being implemented. "We are forcing them to get involved," Gul told TIME. "They are the future of this country." Mark Parris, a former U.S. ambassador to Turkey now at the Brookings Institution in Washington, says 2007 is pivotal: "This could define the kind of country that Turkey is for a generation.">>
Labels: domestic politics, elections2007
Friday, 13 July 2007
Elections: Why a ‘grand coalition’ is the healthiest option for Turkey
See also our dossier on elections.
Labels: elections2007
Thursday, 12 July 2007
AKP will lead in votes but lose majority in Parliament
See also our elections dossier.
Labels: elections2007
Wednesday, 11 July 2007
The AKP and the opposition bicker over presidential candidate
Labels: elections2007
Turkey: On the way to normalization or breakdown?
The military's intervention in Turkey's presidential election demonstrates that it sees itself as the guarantor of secularism and the territorial integrity of Turkey, argues Düzgit and goes on to say that the military's statement needs to be viewed in a wider framework in order to have a better understanding of what it implies for Turkish politics as well as for Turkey's relations with Europe.
The management of the issue could either lead to the consolidation of democracy in the country, or further damage it, Düzgit believes, saying that the elections on 22 July – and subsequent presidential election – are crucial. They must be held on the specified date if there is to be any hope of political stability and normalisation in Turkey, he declares. (Source: Euractiv.com)
Read the commentary What exactly is happening in Turkey? On the way to normalisation or breakdown? (6 July 2007)
See also our dossiers:Turkey-EU relations
Turkey's elections
Labels: elections2007, eu
Next parliament faces crucial test on presidential election
Labels: elections2007
Tuesday, 10 July 2007
Turkish opposition accepts compromise on president
Reuters reports that Turkey's main opposition party on Tuesday agreed to an offer by Prime Minister Tayyip Erdogan to seek a compromise candidate to elect as the next head of state after months of wrangling. Read more...Labels: CHP, elections2007
Turkish Stocks Rise On Political Compromise Hopes
Labels: elections2007
It is not a lively election period
Labels: elections2007
What do the competing parties say about EU membership?
Labels: elections2007, eu
A strange election
Labels: elections2007
Monday, 9 July 2007
Turkey's Islamist Crossroads
"Talk to Turks of any political persuasion and you are sure to hear how proud they are that Turkey is "the only democracy in the Muslim world."
And, yet, as the current general-election campaign heads for its feverish crescendo, many Turks fear that their country may cease to be a democracy on or soon after polling day on July 22." Read more...
Labels: domestic politics, elections2007
Erdogan makes surprise statement on election of next president
NTV reports that Turkey’s Prime Minister has backed away from an ongoing confrontation over the election of the country’s next president, saying his ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) would seek the consensus with the opposition in electing the next head of state. Read more...
Labels: elections2007
Sunday, 8 July 2007
AKP yet to win over wary business elite
Labels: Akp, elections2007