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Thursday, 9 August 2007
Is Turkey going to the Club-Med?
At a time when "the Sarko show" is on the European stage, Turkish entry into the EU remains a pretence. French President Nicolas Sarkozy is determined to keep Turkey out of the EU: recently France blocked the opening of one of three new chapters in Turkey's negotiations. He has proposed a "Union of the Mediterranean", saying "Dear Turkey, I do not want you in the European Union, but why not instead join us as a major player in the Mediterranean Union?". Sarkozy sees Turkish entry as a zero-sum game for France. France has already lost influence in the bloc of 27. Turkish accession, with strong voting rights, would be another setback for France's influence in the EU.
Of course, Turkey is not happy with the alternatives to the full EU membership. There are bad news for Turkey: The idea of a Mediterranean Union--or the so-called Club-Med is gaining popularity among the Mediterranean countries including the 27-nation bloc's members. Recently, the Spanish foreign minister similarly suggested a union comprising EU states and Mediterranean countries should have a council of heads of state and government that would set strategic policy guidelines, have ministerial councils, a Permanent Commission to act as a secretariat, a reinforced parliamentary assembly, and even its own bank. Last month, Sarkozy embarked on a brief tour in Algeria and Tunisia to market his plans bringing North Africa closer to Europe with a new Mediterranean Union of countries from the region, the Middle East and Turkey. Egypt also backed the plan. After a meeting with Sarkozy in Paris last week he said the project needed to be detailed but made clear his agreement that it was in the best interest of North African and European countries.
Countries with membership perspective in EU’s Neighbourhood such as Turkey is confronted with alternative offers. The analogy of clubs could be helpful in understanding this situation:
The club of elites is located in the best part of the coast. There you get whole day full sun-light, private access to the beach, the rooms are of best quality and the club menu is delicious. However, there are several issues which might divide the club members. One of these is the issue with future club members. A group called “keepers” are afraid of loosing their privileges in the club through increase of club members. An other group, “challengers”, want to expand the club and share club's benefits with newcomers. Now, “keepers” come up with the idea of a new club, which will look like a low-cost “club of elites”. Let’s call this Club-Med.
by Can Akdeniz, Editor of Turkishpolitix.com
Labels: editorial
Monday, 23 July 2007
Editorial: Turkish politics and the rising big elephant
Elections in Turkey are over and this is a time of transitions in politics and policy in Turkey. The Justice and Development Party (AKP) won a major victory. The reasons for this victory can be analysed in tens of pages. Let us focus on one single question: ‘What is next in Turkish politics?’. Good question. What is the answer?For the most western observers the Turkey’s election was about a clash between secular elites and moderate Islamism in Turkey (see TIME, Turkey's Dilemma, where Turkey is described as an divided country between secularists and moderate islamists). Of course this ideological perspective was the easiest way to understand and to show what is going on in Turkey. However, they missed the point that the key question for the most of the Turkish electorates is the Turkish economy and prosperity in the country. The situation of the Turkish economy has been a powerful driver in election campaigns and AKP’s victory. The opposition parties was not able to deliver substantial issues and proposals, as the AKP successfully dominated debates on economy and social issues. Turkish people wanted to have continuity instead of a new adventure.
The agenda in Turkey is changing, however, in three important ways. There is now growing expectations towards the AKP concerning economic policies. Although Turkey has greatly improved its economical fundamentals, the Turkish economy is vulnerable to domestic and international shocks. Foreign investors hold around 70% of floating shares on the Istanbul Stock Exchange. The current account deficit is partly financed by foreign liquidity. Further economic reforms are needed to improve competitiveness and external balances. Although Turkey is a EU candidate county, the Human Development Index for Turkey is 0.757, which gives Turkey a rank of 92nd out off 177 countries. According to UNDP, 4 % of Turkish population has no access to an improved water resource.
Security issues are rising up the agenda. This problem is disturbing the Turkish public. There are recent terrorist attacks on the Turkish security forces in Southeast Turkey. Public pressure on the government is growing and the opposition is blaming the AKP for ineffective counter terrorism policies. The Nationalist Movement Party (MHP), which wants a stronger counter terrorism policy, could double its votes compared to 2002.
Much else is changing too. Turkey is now more integrated in the global economy. Evidence for this is that in 2006 Turkey attracted USD 17 bn foreign direct investment inflow. Urbanisation is spreading fast and unemployment rate of 11% is too much. Supply chains in Turkey are being reconfigured as Europeanisation and integration in the global economy proceeds. And, interestingly, social policy debates are being re-cast. For example, we can expect that inequality will become a more prominent issue in the future.
We miss all this at our peril. An analogy we can drawn is with a visit to a game park. All eyes and lenses are focused on the lioness and her cubs on the side of the car. Meanwhile, on the other, unnoticed, a large elephant advances…
by Can Akdeniz, Editor of Turkishpolitix.com. Here he is expressing his personal views.
Labels: editorial, elections2007
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