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Saturday, 31 March 2007


Erdogan at Arab League Summit

Recently, Turkish government is focusing on Turkey's ties to the Middle East. Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan is currently in Saudi Arabia attending a two-day Arab summit as the guest of Saudi King Abdullah. Addressing the gathering two days ago, Erdogan commented on the need for peace and stability in the Middle East, saying that everyone was injured by the constant stream of deaths in Iraq. Erdogan further urged that stability and security should be ensured in Iraq as soon as possible. “Protecting Iraq’s political unity and territorial integrity has vital importance for regional peace and stability,” he said. “The possibility of Iraq’s division is an unacceptable and tragic scenario.” Afterwards, Erdogan held bilateral meetings with Iraqi President Jalal Talabani, Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas, and Palestinian Prime Minister Ismail Haniyeh. Speaking after their meeting, Talabani said that they had discussed a number of issues, including the Iraqi city of Kirkuk and terrorism, adding that their meeting had been positive and constructive. “We resolved to solve problems through dialogue,” he added.

Thursday, 29 March 2007


US countering Russian energy strategy

Ariel Cohen at Eurasianet reports that Washington policymakers are scrambling to develop tactics that can counter Russia’s aggressive action aimed at cementing Kremlin control over Caspian Basin energy and export routes. Here a interesting remark on US concerns:

"Four major Eurasian energy developments during March have set off alarm bells inside the Beltway. First, Hungarian Prime Minister Ferenc Gyurcsany, the leader of that country’s former Communist Party, revealed March 12 that his country would throw its support behind a plan to pump Russian gas via Turkey to Europe, instead of joining fellow European Union states in backing the much-delayed Nabucco gas pipeline project. [...] The second development concerns an agreement by Russia, Bulgaria and Greece to construct an oil pipeline, dubbed Burgas-Alexandroupolis, which would bypass the Turkish-controlled Bosporus Straits, an oil transport chokepoint. [...] Finally, British Petroleum has hinted that its Russian partner TNK may sell its share in the TNK-BP joint venture, formed in 2003, to a Russian state-owned company. At the same time Russia is developing plans on building the second Bosporus bypass from a port on the Black Sea, such as Samsun to the Mediterranean."

Cohen predicts that US' action has no much support:

"However, Brussels is split over what to do about Russia’s ominous behavior. Germany is already deferential to Russia’s energy interests, and Berlin appears to want to do nothing that would disturb the status quo, despite the fact that the EU’s long-term energy interests demand that it diversify its sources of energy."

Wednesday, 28 March 2007


India's mega investment in Turkey

FDI to Turkey seems to increase rapidly. India Infoline News Service reports that Indian Oil Corporation Ltd. (IOC) is looking to set up a 15 million tons per year greenfield refinery at Ceyhan for US$6bn. IOC has also bid for a majority stake in Turkey`s Petkim refinery.

IOC is also in talks for a pipeline project in Turkey. The project, estimated at US$2bn, would involve laying of pipeline from the Black Sea to the Mediterranean Sea. IOC would pick up a 12.5% stake in the Samsun-Ceyhan pipeline. Work on the project will begin by April-end.

The 350-mile and one million barrels per day line is being developed by a joint venture between Italy's ENI and Turkey's Calik Energy, called Trans-Anadolu Pipeline Company (TAPCO).



Turkey and the EU back to the table

The complicated negotiations between the EU and Turkey are going on. Today's Zaman reports that the EU agreed on Tuesday to open another chapter (Chapter 20 on enterprise and industrial policies) in its accession talks with Turkey after a mini-crisis between France and Spain.
"Spain, one of the strongest supporters of Turkey's EU bid, blocked a possible compromise last Friday on technical issues but agreed to the opening of accession talks with a new compromise among member states on Chapter 20. In an enlargement working group meeting Tuesday, member countries finally agreed to open Chapter 20 on enterprise and industrial policies after the German presidency held emergency talks between Spain, France and the European Commission (EC) on Monday."

Tuesday, 27 March 2007


Kurds in Turkey

Tulin Daloglu from The Washinton Times reports that Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice may travel to Turkey for an international conference primarily aimed at helping Iraq's security situation. Daloglu says that Turkey is changing in terms of democracy and rights of Kurds:
"The idea that human-rights abuses in Turkey exclusively target Kurds is a myth. When the system is corrupt, when democracy is not well established, when the justice system is the weakest link among state institutions, then all people suffer from wrongdoing, regardless of their ethnic or religious background. Kurds have equal rights as Turkish citizens. The late Turgut Ozal, a Turkish president, Hikmet Cetin, a former chairman of the parliament, and Ibrahim Tatlises, one of the country's most popular singers, are a few of those who have benefited from those rights."
However, the main challange for Turks is the U.S.' policy in Iraq:
"When Turkey was founded, being a Turk only meant being a citizen of the republic. Today, Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan says that "it is not possible to call Kurds 'Turks.' " A recent public opinion poll conducted for Milliyet, a prominent Turkish newspaper, reveals that the majority no longer define themselves as "Turks," but prioritize their ethnicity. Apparently, Turkey is changing. And two questions remain unresolved: what people understand change to be -- unity or separation -- and what the U.S. end goal for the Kurds is."

Monday, 26 March 2007


Direct foreign capital in Turkey exceeds USD6 bln in January

Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who spoke in the inauguration ceremony of the new headquarters of Independent Industrialists' & Businessmen's Association (MUSIAD), stated that direct foreign capital inflow has exceeded 6 billion USD as of the end of January. He also made a brief summary of Turkey's economic progress during his four-year duty.

You can find a new article on this topic at the website of JTW News.


Does Turkey look east?

Are we witnessing a shift in Turkish foreing relations? Here a quote from Simon Tisall, The Guardian (26 March 2007):

"Turkey's increasingly important regional leadership role is also changing the way it views the EU. As a vital transit hub, it provides much of Europe's oil and gas from the Caspian basin, Russia and, prospectively, the Turkic republics of central Asia. This is leading to closer cooperation with Moscow and reviving ideas of a Turkic Commonwealth from Azerbaijan to Kazakhstan.

The "reformed Islamist" government in Ankara is also cultivating the Arab and Muslim world. It signalled a new strategic relationship with Egypt this week. It sent peacekeeping troops to Lebanon last year. It talks to Iran when many will not or cannot. Close links to Israel have not prevented the building of ties with Hamas and the Palestinian Authority. And despite tensions with the Kurds, Turkey is northern Iraq's main economic partner. Istanbul is the likely venue of next month's Iraq summit.

Rising ultra-nationalism and "neo-Ottoman" thinking, Islamist extremism and political instability are the acknowledged dangers of Turkey's rise. But its strength is its 70 million people's drive and energy, a dynamic resource that flabby, middle-aged western Europe lacks."


Thursday, 22 March 2007


The EU at 50: with or without Turkey?

The EU is celebrating its birthday, but it's not quite sure of its identity and borders. Here a quote from Eurotopics of 22 March on EU's borders:

<
<> Regis Debray, for example, talks about the legacy of the Enlightenment which teaches us the "historical fact that all identities are formed 'by opposition'. And this goes for individuals as well as nations and even federations."

The question of the EU's geographical borders is raised every time a new country expresses interest in joining. Can a country like Turkey, with its predominantly Muslim population, become a member of the club of Christian Europeans? Could countries like the former members of the Soviet Union - for example Ukraine or Georgia - one day join the Union, or would their accession put a question mark on the identity of the EU?

The border issue is generally discussed in connection with European values. This was highlighted by the row following the publication in the Danish daily Jyllands Posten of the Muhammad cartoons in late 2005. All Europe reflected on how to balance European values like press freedom and freedom of expression against religious sensibilities.

"With over 20 million Muslim immigrants, Europe has brought the conflict with Islam upon itself and must now defend its values and principles, both within its own borders and without," wrote German author Peter Schneider in the Tagesspiegel of 23 February 2006, commenting on relations with Muslims in non-European countries, as well as with European Muslims. The ongoing debate on multiculturalism at Signandsight focuses on a similar issue, namely the limits of tolerance. One important thesis is that tolerance ends when fundamental European values such as the inviolability of the individual or equal rights for women are violated.
>>

Wednesday, 21 March 2007


Pipeline politics: EU's pipeline dream threatened

A quote from Speronews article on 21 March 2007

<< The European Union craves energy, but not to the extent that it wants to see members break rank to secure it. And that is exactly what Hungary is being accused of doing.

The controversy centers on the Hungarian government's mid-March announcement that it had agreed to a Russian proposal to extend the Blue Stream pipeline. Under the arrangement, Russian natural gas would reach Hungary via Turkey and the Balkans.

Unilateral Action

But some media are saying Hungary is positioning itself to gain preferential access to Russian gas and become a hub for Gazprom's operations in Central Europe. Furthermore, the argument goes, in agreeing to the deal the Hungarians became party to Russia's efforts to tighten their grip on energy deliveries to Europe.

Another concern, the media say, is that Hungary's decision sabotages the European Union's pet project -- the Nabucco pipeline, which was intended to circumvent Russian routes in bringing Caspian and Middle East gas to Europe.

The Hungarian government has defended its actions by claiming that Nabucco is still a "distant dream." The Hungarian government has defended its actions by claiming that Nabucco is still a "distant dream" and that the country had to face reality. Hungary's gas consumption, it claims, is increasing and the country cannot wait until 2012 for Nabucco to be completed. Furthermore, it has not yet been determine if there is enough gas in the Caspian region to fill Nabucco or to ensure that long-term delivery contracts can be met.>>


Turkey and EU's strategic relations with South Caucasus

Many observers think that the establishment of the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline has improved Turkey's influence in South Caucasus. Will this new situation boost the importance of Turkey for the EU? A recent article by Bordorado from Center for Security Studies, Zurich, argues that due to energy security concerns the EU aims to enhance its relations with South Caucasus.
"Energy security and military-strategic stakes make the region a catalyst of Euro-Atlantic tensions with Moscow. As European and US needs for hydrocarbons rise, the Caspian region and Caucasian transportation routes gain more strategic significance."
Moreover the article points out that "the inauguration of the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline has reinforced Turkey's influence in South Caucasus, as Ankara recently upgraded its military cooperation with Georgia and Azerbaijan, but it also has strengthened Turkey's role as a energy hub between the eastern energy-rich regions and Europe."

Concerning implications for EU-Turkey relations it says:

"This aspect of the Wider Black Sea's geopolitics will force Germany and the EU to consider the risks of losing Ankara as a privileged partner, as a consequence of the recent anti-Turkish wave in some European cabinets."



Turkey excluded from European Union's 50th birthday celebrations

Reuters reports that Turkey took a swipe at Germany on Tuesday over a decision to exclude candidate countries from the European Union's 50th birthday celebrations in Berlin next weekend.

"It would have been meaningful, in terms of demonstrating once again the unity of the European family, if Germany had invited candidate countries," the Turkish Foreign Ministry said in a short statement.

Asked about Ankara's statement, a German government spokesman said: "This is a celebration of the members of the European Union. No candidate countries were invited, whether it be Turkey or others."


Tuesday, 20 March 2007


Dangers of the Armenian genocide resolution

In a recent article Michael Radu, Co-Chair of FPRI's Center on Terrorism, says

"For many Armenians in the US (concentrated in California - Rep. Adam Schiff, D-California, was the bill's sponsor), the issue is hate for everything Turkish and an attempt to rewrite history for emotional fulfillment. For Armenians in Armenia, it is the hoped-for beginning of a process leading to compensation, including financial, from Ankara, and a welcome diversion from their domestic difficulties."
Concerning consequences for U.S.-Turkey relations:
"Turkish nationalism, on the rise as it is and now with a disturbing new element of anti-Americanism, reaches hysterical levels when the Armenian issue is mentioned. Although most elites may not share it yet, it is unlikely that they could control a wave of anti-Americanism if the US House of Representatives considers the proposed resolution. And it cost the French billions in lost or cancelled contracts with Turkey when the lower house of their parliament passed a resolution last year making it a crime to deny that genocide occurred."

Monday, 19 March 2007


Islam and Identity in Germany

A new report from the International Crisis Group states that "the experience of Germany, with the largest Muslim population in Western Europe after France, shows that a significant Muslim population at the heart of Europe need not produce either violent Islamist groups or destabilising social unrest. Politicians now acknowledge it is a country of immigration, with a large and permanent Turkish and Muslim component."

International Crisis Group says:

"It is unrealistic to expect those of Turkish origin to become fully integrated into German society while citizenship and full participation in public life are withheld. By placing almost all the onus of adjustment and evolution on the immigrant population, this unrealistic expectation tends to encourage the authorities and political class to evade their responsibilities to facilitate this evolution and inhibits the emergence of a political party consensus on the principles that should underlie the integration process."

Sunday, 18 March 2007


UN predicts huge migration to Europe

A quote from The Daily Telegraph, 16 March 2007

There will be billions more people in Africa, Asia and the Middle East. Of these, tens of millions will migrate to Europe and America, while the indigenous populations of most countries in the rich world will either stagnate or decline.



In total, the world's population will grow by 2.5 billion and reach about 9.2 billion by 2050.
This increase - almost all of which will occur in Africa, Asia and the Middle East - is the equivalent of the global population in 1950.

While some countries will grow exponentially, others will shrink dramatically.

The UN predicts the steady depopulation of vast areas of eastern Europe and the former Communist world, as a result of high levels of emigration and birth rates running persistently below replacement levels.

Bulgaria's population will fall by 35 per cent by 2050. Ukraine's will plummet by 33 per cent, Russia's by one quarter and Poland's by one fifth. There will be 10 per cent fewer Germans and seven per cent fewer Italians.

But the flow of migrants across borders will dramatically increase the populations of other developed countries.

"The population of the more developed regions is expected to remain largely unchanged at 1.2 billion, and would have declined, were it not for the projected net migration from developing to developed countries," said the UN.


Saturday, 17 March 2007


U.S.-Turkish Relations and the Challenges Ahead


2007 is not an easy year for U.S.-Turkish Relations as Turkey faces the possibility of a U.S. Congressional resolution defining as genocide the mass killings of Armenians during the final years of the Ottoman Empire. In a speech on 15 March Daniel Fried, Assistant Secretary for European and Eurasian Affairs gave an detailed oberview of recent developments in U.S.-Turkish relations. Below are some quotes from his statement:

Iraq and Afghanistan
"We have made steady progress over the past two years in elevating bilateral U.S.-Turkish relations from their low point on March 1, 2003, when the Turkish Grand National Assembly voted not to allow U.S. forces to deploy through Turkey to Iraq. Today, Turkey supports U.S. objectives in Iraq and has urged us not to abandon the Iraqi people."
"Turkey has played a vital role in Afghanistan in combating terrorism and promoting freedom and democracy. After commanding International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) II in 2002 and ISAF VII in 2005, Turkey is now sharing joint rotational command of ISAF Capital Regional Command for two years with France and Italy."

Middle East

"Turkey is part of the robust international coalition working to achieve a diplomatic solution to Iran's continuing noncompliance with its international nuclear obligations. Our cooperation with Turkey on these efforts is evidence of our close working relationship to promote international peace and security. It has stood firm with us and others to counter Iran's threat to regional stability. [...] Turkey has been a partner in the efforts to achieve Israeli-Palestinian peace and, because of its close relations with both Israel and Arab states, has played a helpful role as honest broker in bridging some of the gaps. [...] One of the most tangible Turkish contributions has involved peacekeeping and safeguarding the integrity of Lebanon. Turkey has been actively engaged in Lebanon, notably by contributing about 900 troops to UNIFIL last fall, helping to bring stability to a violence-wracked region."
Energy Security
"During the late 1990s, cooperation on energy security became a cornerstone of the U.S.-Turkey partnership. The Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC) oil pipeline grew from a vision of an energy corridor that would resurrect the Great Silk Road, articulated at that time by Turkey, Georgia, and Azerbaijan. Many were skeptical, but the United States offered strong support to help realize this vision, working with these governments and with companies to establish a public-private partnership that has resulted in one of the most complex and successful pipeline projects of all time. BTC was inaugurated in July. It will reach full capacity of one million barrels of oil per day over the next few years, and connect oil fields in the Caspian Sea with global markets reached from Turkey's Mediterranean Sea port of Ceyhan. A companion natural gas pipeline, the Baku-Tbilisi-Erzurum (BTE), is about to begin delivering Azerbaijani natural gas from the Shah Deniz field in the Caspian to Georgia and Turkey."
Counterterrorism
"We are committed to eliminating the threat of PKK terrorism in northern Iraq, where this terrorist group is headquartered and from which it continues to launch deadly attacks in Turkey. We have made progress against PKK operatives and support networks in Europe. As a result of this close cooperation, France and Belgium recently arrested several PKK terror financiers linked to financing attacks against Turkey. But we also must achieve concrete results against the PKK in Iraq. The Secretary last August appointed General (ret) Joseph Ralston, formerly Supreme Allied Commander in Europe, as Special Envoy to Counter the PKK. General (ret) Ralston has been coordinating closely with his Turkish counterpart, General (ret) Edip Baser, and his Iraqi counterpart, Minister of State Shirwan al-Waili, to end the PKK threat."
Domestic Politics
"Turkish-American partnership must rest on a foundation of Turkey's own democratic development. Turkey remains a secular, democratic state. But it is today a very different and a far more robust democracy than the Turkey of a generation ago. Former boundaries of expression and limits upon political opinions are gone or much widened. Basic freedoms are more respected."
Turkey-Armenia Relations
"Against this complex background of shared interests, common values, and political turbulence, Turkey now faces the possibility of a U.S. Congressional resolution defining as genocide the mass killings and forced exile of as many as 1.5 million Armenians in the final years of the Ottoman Empire. The Administration has never denied - nor does it dispute or minimize - the historical facts of these mass murders and ethnic cleansing. Each year, the President issues a solemn statement on April 24, Armenian Remembrance Day, recognizing these atrocities and the suffering inflicted on Armenians. The Administration's goal is to stimulate a candid exploration within Turkish society of these horrific events in an effort to help Turkey reconcile with its painful past and with Armenia. This is not easy. It was not easy for the United States to address its own historical dark spots, including slavery and the internment of U.S. citizens of Japanese descent during WWII. We will have to be persistent and thoughtful."


Friday, 16 March 2007


Transformation in Turkey

Is Turkey going through a transformation? Suat Kiniklioglu, executive director of the German Marshall Fund’s new office in Ankara, thinks so.

In a recent article "History in the Making: Transformation in Turkey" he points out that Turkey is facing new trends such as Change of elites, New understanding of foreign policy and a distinct sense of frustration concerning the US policy in Iraq.

He concludes that:

"despite these three major trends there is a positive emerging and that is Turkey is normalizing both domestically and regionally. The decades-old anomaly of Turkey turning its back to the Middle East, the Caucasus, the Mediterranean and the Balkans has come to an end. Turkey is gradually normalizing with these regions, trading with them and deepening its political dialogue. Should current trends continue, Turkey is destined to become a regional hegemon."


Tensions over oil in the Mediterranean & French-Greek Cypriot alliance

There are two new stories concerning the Cyprus issue: the first is the tensions over oil in the Mediterranean. Turkey announced that she will do exploration and extraction work for oil in the Mediterranean. Some time ago the Cyprus government has vowed to press ahead with oil and gas exploration off its coast, despite strong objections from Turkey. The Greek Cypriot plans for oil exploration in the eastern Mediterranean have backing from the US.

The second story is the French-Greek Cypriot deal. France and Greek Cyprus signed an agreement to facilitate military and defense cooperation, drawing an angry response from Ankara, which said the deal was against relevant international agreements.

Tuesday, 13 March 2007


Alliance of civilizations and cross-cultural relations

Below is the link to the report of the "Alliance of Civilizations".

To advance the Alliance of Civilizations, the UN Secretary-General established a High-level Group of eminent personalities and tasked this Group with generating a report containing an analysis of the rise in cross-cultural polarization and extremism and a set of practical recommendations to counter this phenomenon. The High-level Group met five times from November 2005 to November 2006, at the conclusion of which it produced a report which takes a multi-polar approach within which it prioritizes relations between Muslim and Western societies.

The report is structured in two parts: Part I presents an analysis of the global context and of the state of relations between Muslim and Western societies. It concludes with a set of policy recommendations, indicating the High-level Group's belief that certain political steps are pre-requisites to any substantial and lasting improvement in relations between Muslim and Western societies. Part II of the report reflects the High-level Group's view that tensions across cultures have spread beyond the political level into the hearts and minds of populations. To counter this trend, the Group analyzes and presents recommendations in each of four thematic areas: Education, Youth, Migration, and Media. The Report concludes with the High-level Group's suggestions for the implementation of its recommendations.

The Report of the High-level Group was presented to UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan and to Prime Ministers José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero and Recep Tayyip Erdoğan on 13 November 2006 at the final meeting of the High-level Group in Istanbul, Turkey.

Full report and more details

For those, who wants to know more about this initiative, a working paper by FRIDE
, Alliance of Civilizations: International Security and Cosmopolitan Democracy, is a good source.

Monday, 12 March 2007


"There has been a lethal upsurge in ultra-nationalist feeling in Turkey" says the Economist

Here is the link to a recent article in the Economist. The article examines the ultra-nationalist groups in Turkey. It argues that "the upsurge threatens to undo the good of four years of reforms by the mildly Islamist government led by Recep Tayyip Erdogan. Indeed, it is partly in response to these reforms—more freedom for the Kurds, a trimming of the army's powers, concessions on Cyprus—that nationalist passions have been roused." The article finds that especially "the knowledge that many members of the European Union do not want Turkey to join has inflamed them further (the EU partially suspended membership talks with Turkey in December because of its refusal to open its ports and airspace to Greek-Cypriots)."




Burning issue: Turkish Iraq policy

Turkish officials see the recent developments in Iraq following the collapse of the Saddam regime as a peculiar case with an uncertain future affecting Turkey’s security in the region. Recently, the Turkish government stated that the idea of organizing a meeting in Istanbul on Iraq's security has been accepted by all the related parties (Iraq's neighbors, the permanent members of the U.N. Security Council and the Group of Eight nations).

On Saturday a top Turkish general reaffirmed Ankara's right under international law to send troops into northern Iraq to crush PKK militants.

"Turkey can always take measures against the terrorist organization in northern Iraq if our military needs require it… under international law," Gen. İlker Başbuğ, head of the Land Forces, told reporters in Diyarbakır.


Thursday, 8 March 2007


State of the EU-Turkey relations: the implications of the German EU Presidency for Turkey

Recommended reading: the new ZEI EU-Turkey-Monitor

The suspension of eight out of 35 chapters by the Council in December 2006 has caused new frictions in EU-Turkey relations. These have been accompanied by various developments and trends – positively and negatively. The new ZEI EU-Turkey-Monitor focuses on these current trends such as the development perspectives after the Council’s decision or the implications of the German EU Presidency for Turkey. Since the general awareness of the situation of non-Muslim minorities in Turkey increased considerably after the Pope’s visit in November/December 2006 and the assassination of Hrant Dink in January 2007, the current issue also assembles different views on this topic. We hope the publication will be of interest to you.

Click here to download (pdf)


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