Elections in Turkey are over and this is a time of transitions in politics and policy in Turkey. The Justice and Development Party (AKP) won a major victory. The reasons for this victory can be analysed in tens of pages. Let us focus on one single question: ‘What is next in Turkish politics?’. Good question. What is the answer?

For the most western observers the Turkey’s election was about a clash between secular elites and moderate Islamism in Turkey (see TIME, Turkey's Dilemma, where Turkey is described as an divided country between secularists and moderate islamists). Of course this ideological perspective was the easiest way to understand and to show what is going on in Turkey. However, they missed the point that the key question for the most of the Turkish electorates is the Turkish economy and prosperity in the country. The situation of the Turkish economy has been a powerful driver in election campaigns and AKP’s victory. The opposition parties was not able to deliver substantial issues and proposals, as the AKP successfully dominated debates on economy and social issues. Turkish people wanted to have continuity instead of a new adventure.

The agenda in Turkey is changing, however, in three important ways. There is now growing expectations towards the AKP concerning economic policies. Although Turkey has greatly improved its economical fundamentals, the Turkish economy is vulnerable to domestic and international shocks. Foreign investors hold around 70% of floating shares on the Istanbul Stock Exchange. The current account deficit is partly financed by foreign liquidity. Further economic reforms are needed to improve competitiveness and external balances. Although Turkey is a EU candidate county, the Human Development Index for Turkey is 0.757, which gives Turkey a rank of 92^nd out off 177 countries. According to UNDP, 4 % of Turkish population has no access to an improved water resource.

Security issues are rising up the agenda. This problem is disturbing the Turkish public. There are recent terrorist attacks on the Turkish security forces in Southeast Turkey. Public pressure on the government is growing and the opposition is blaming the AKP for ineffective counter terrorism policies. The Nationalist Movement Party (MHP), which wants a stronger counter terrorism policy, could double its votes compared to 2002.

Much else is changing too. Turkey is now more integrated in the global economy. Evidence for this is that in 2006 Turkey attracted USD 17 bn foreign direct investment inflow. Urbanisation is spreading fast and unemployment rate of 11% is too much. Supply chains in Turkey are being reconfigured as Europeanisation and integration in the global economy proceeds. And, interestingly, social policy debates are being re-cast. For example, we can expect that inequality will become a more prominent issue in the future.

We miss all this at our peril. An analogy we can drawn is with a visit to a game park. All eyes and lenses are focused on the lioness and her cubs on the side of the car. Meanwhile, on the other, unnoticed, a large elephant advances…

by Can Akdeniz, Editor of Turkishpolitix.com. Here he is expressing his personal views.

Labels: editorial, elections2007