"Mr Erdogan is tipped to run in next month's presidential ballot, which will be decided by a vote in parliament. If he wins he will have to stand down as leader of the neo-Islamist Justice and Development party. This could hamper the party's chances in the general election in the autumn. There is even speculation that it could lead to a return of the system of coalition governments that have been the source of much of Turkey's past political instability."

"That is because Turkey’s mildly Islamist prime minister, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, whose ruling AK Party has a big majority in parliament, is thinking of taking the top job himself. With the power to appoint the head of the army (NATO’s second-biggest), all of Turkey’s judges and its university rectors, a President Erdogan could advance his covert Islamist agenda unimpeded, his critics say. With his headscarf-wearing wife, Emine, as first lady, the fall of the secular republic would be complete."

"Even his supporters see plenty of reasons why he should not. Mr Erdogan has unrivalled charisma and could lead the AK Party to another big victory in November. Many businessmen fret that without him the party, a loose coalition of nationalists, Islamists and liberals, could fall apart, plunging Turkey back into instability. As president, Mr Erdogan’s autocratic instinct might spoil relations with Abdullah Gul, the foreign minister, who is his most likely successor and is no poodle."